Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German economy.
In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Jg. 217 (2024), S. 493-506
Online
academicJournal
We assemble a data set of more than eight million German Twitter posts related to the war in Ukraine. Based on state-of-the-art methods of text analysis, we construct a daily index of uncertainty about the war as perceived by German Twitter. We then estimate a VAR model with daily financial and macroeconomic data and identify an exogenous uncertainty shock. The increase in uncertainty has strong effects on financial markets and causes a significant decline in economic activity as well as an increase in expected inflation. We find the effects of uncertainty to be particularly strong in the first months of the war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Titel: |
Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German economy.
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Grebe, Moritz ; Kandemir, Sinem ; Tillmann, Peter |
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Zeitschrift: | Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Jg. 217 (2024), S. 493-506 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2024 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 0167-2681 (print) |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.11.015 |
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