The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations.

This paper uses a product-level empirical model of bilateral trade to examine the global trade implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The results show that imports from Ukraine were 47.3% below the counterfactual between February and August 2022. The Russia–Ukraine war led to significant trade diversion for Russia, primarily benefiting Russian mineral oil and gas exports to Europe and Asia. The analysis also reveals that the trade adjustments operate mainly through import price hikes, with notable heterogeneity across product groups and regions. The findings indicate that the Ukraine–Russia war had significant trade implications for Ukraine and Russia but only limited ones for other countries. • The Russia–Ukraine war reduced imports from Ukraine by 47.3% until August 2022. • Ukraine lost $19.4 billion in exports, while Russia gained $68.3 billion. • Russia realized trade gains of $41.1 billion in Asia. • The war had limited trade implications for not directly involved countries. • Global market adjustments operated mainly through increased commodity prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]