“双循环” 背景下中俄农产品贸易潜力研究.

In recent years, economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia has been in a stage of steady progress, and agricultural products trade between the two sides has been increasing year over year. However, the complicated international situation, the uncertainties of the international situation, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may restrain the high-quality development trend of Sino-Russian agricultural trade. At present, China is vigorously promoting the new dual-circulation development paradigm, which takes the domestic market as the mainstay and lets the domestic and international markets reinforce each other, in this context, it is particularly important to solve the uncertainty of agricultural trade between the two sides and tap the potential of agricultural trade between China and Russia. Based on analyzing the situation of Sino-Russian agricultural products trade from 2008 to 2020, the potential of Sino-Russian agricultural products trade was measured through Gravity model. The results showed that: the trade space between the two sides needs to be expanded, and Sino-Russian agricultural products trade has great development potential; the development of agricultural trade between China and Russia is hindered by the lack of unified quality standards for China's agricultural products, the high proportion of primary agricultural products and the low level of connectivity between China and Russia, the quality of Sino-Russian agricultural trade development is not high. Based on this, it is necessary to build China's high-quality agricultural products market with the help of internal circulation, promote the deep-level open cooperation between China and Russia, and promote the high-quality development of Sino-Russian agricultural products trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

中国与俄罗斯经贸合作处于稳步推进阶段, 双方农产品贸易逐年增长。然而, 当前国际形势复杂、不确定性事件以及俄乌冲突等因素可能会抑制中俄农产品贸易的高质量发展趋势。目前, 中国正在加快形成 “以国内大循环为主体、国内国际相互促进的双循环” 新发展格局, 在此背景下化解中俄农产品贸易的不确定性, 挖掘中俄农产品贸易潜力尤为重要。在分析 2008—2020 年中俄农产品贸易现状的基础上, 通过引力模型测度中俄农产品贸易潜力, 结果发现: 双方贸易空间有待拓展, 存在较大的发展潜力; 受中国农产品统一质量标准缺乏、初级农产品占比过高以及中俄双方互联互通水平低等因素制约, 中俄农产品贸易发展质量不高。基于此, 需借助内循环打造中国优质农产品市场, 推进中俄农产品深层次开放合作, 共促中俄农产品贸易高质量发展。 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]