Hard coal production in Poland in the aspect of climate and energy policy of the European Union and the war in Ukraine. Investment case study.

The adoption by European Union (EU) member states of a long-term vision to move toward climate neutrality implies abandoning hard coal production, temporarily using natural gas and transitioning to renewable energy and nuclear power. Along these lines, most EU countries have ceased coal production, but coal consumption has declined at a much slower rate, resulting in increased dependence on coal imports, including from Russia. In 2021, as much as 51 million tons of coal went from this country to EU countries. In 2022, in the wake of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, resulting in an embargo on Russian coal, some EU countries, mainly Poland, began to consider extending the operation of coal mines and making investments in maintaining or increasing capacity, to make up for the shortage of coal mainly for residential customers. Deciding to make such an investment is difficult, among other things because of the accompanying business risks, which the mine's management is responsible for exceeding. The publication presents a developed model for assessing the business risk of investment in maintaining or increasing coal production, the use of which makes it possible to obtain information to support rational decision-making. • Due to climate and energy policies, hard coal production in the EU is steadily declining. • The 2022 embargo on coal imports from Russia, has created a coal shortage. • In the EU, only Poland has the resources to make up for the coal shortfall. • Maintaining or increasing coal production requires capital-intensive investments. • A model of assessing business risk has been developed to support such decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]