AKTUELNA KRIZA U UKRAJINI I NJENE POSLEDICE. (Turkish)
In: New Economist / Novi Ekonomist, Jg. 16 (2022-07-01), Heft 32, S. 6-12
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Zugriff:
The weakening of the ruble since the end of February has increased the pro-inflationary pressure. During December-February, the nominal exchange rate of the ruble fell by 5-7% in relation to the three main currencies of Russia's trading partners (the US dollar, the euro and the Chinese yuan). Since the end of February, the depreciation of the ruble has accelerated due to new sanctions imposed by Western countries. By mid-March, the ruble had weakened almost 1.5 times compared to the February average. The pro-inflationary pressure caused by this weakening of the exchange rate will be reflected in the prices of imported consumer goods and goods with a significant share of imported components in costs, but with different time delays. The growth of global prices has had a limited impact on the domestic (Russian) market. Global prices for cereals and sunflower oil continued to rise in February. At the end of February-March, this trend intensified due to the reduction of exports from Russia and Ukraine. The impact of external trends on the Russian market is significantly limited thanks to customs mechanisms that reduce the sensitivity of domestic prices of wheat and sunflower oil to world price movements. (UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Blumerg, Bank of Russia calculations) Commercial air transport and cargo are also being diverted or completely suspended, increasing operating costs, and many multinational companies have suspended operations in Russia. There are also some possible long-term consequences of the war, including pressures for higher defense spending, the structure of energy markets, potential fragmentation of payment systems, and changes in the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves. Dividing the world into blocs would sacrifice some of the benefits of specialization, economies of scale, and the dissemination of information and knowledge. Excluding Russia from the SWIFT messaging system could accelerate efforts to develop alternatives, potentially reducing the dominant role of the U.S. dollar in financial markets and cross-border payments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Poslednje decenije, ali i vekovi, obiluju finansijskim krizama različitih karakteristika, intenziteta i područja javljanja. Iskustva finansijskih kriza su pokazala da države dospevaju u finansijsku krizu kada ekonomija kao celina kontinuirano ima deficit tekućeg bilansa, dakle kada troši više nego što stvara, što dovodi do rasta spoljne zaduženosti Predmet istraživanja je aktuelna kriza, nastala intervencijom Rusije u Ukrajini, usled čega su usledile sveobuhvatne i veoma drastične sankcije, koje su rezultirale ozbiljnim tržišnim ishodima. Cilj rada je da se vidi, u kojim segmentima će se prvo videti posledice krize, te da li će se i koliko kriza odraziti na globalnu ekonomiju. Uprkos maloj ekonomskoj veličini Rusije, intervencija i povezane sankcije već izazivaju poremećaje globalne prirode kroz finansijske i poslovne veze. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Titel: |
AKTUELNA KRIZA U UKRAJINI I NJENE POSLEDICE. (Turkish)
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Zelenović, Vera ; Zelenović, Jelena |
Zeitschrift: | New Economist / Novi Ekonomist, Jg. 16 (2022-07-01), Heft 32, S. 6-12 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2022 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 1840-2313 (print) |
DOI: | 10.7251/NOESR2232006Z |
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