乌克兰危机背景下全球天然气贸易格局演变研究. (Chinese)

Since the Ukraine crisis, the global natural gas market has undergone profound adjustments, with high prices and shortages becoming the key words. While the global natural gas is in short supply and the gas price is soaring, the LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) shipping market has also experienced a shortage of transportation capacity and a sharp increase in freight rates. However, as affected by the shortage in supply in the natural gas market and high prices, the security of natural gas supply has received key attention, the volume of long-term LNG supply contracts has increased significantly, and a new round of investment boom has emerged, laying the foundation for the adjustment of the trade pattern. Looking ahead, the increase in investment will help the natural gas market emerging from shortages emerging and prices will gradually fall, which in turn will drive consumption growth. So the decline in gas consumption in Europe will not affect the general trend of steady global consumption growth; natural gas trade flow will be further adjusted, with the U. S. and Asia-Pacific gaining influence; increasing LNG trade flexibility remains a long-term trend. For a national perspective, it is a good time to seize the opportunities of reform and strive to enhance its influence on the international natural gas market; As far as the company is concerned, it is necessary to grasp the price fluctuation cycle, avoid signing high price long-term agreements, and proactively build a global LNG resource pool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

烏克蘭危機以來, 全球天然氣市場深刻調整, 高價與短缺成為關鍵詞. 在全球天然氣供應短缺與氣價飆升的同時, 液化天然氣 (Liquefied Natural Gas, LNG) 船運市場也出現了運力緊張、運價快速上漲的情況. 然而, 受天然氣市場供應短缺與價格高企影響, 天然氣供應安全受到重點關注、LNG長協簽訂量大增、新一輪投資熱潮興起, 為貿易格局調整埋下伏筆. 展望未來, 投資的增加有助于天然氣市場逐漸走出短缺局面, 價格逐漸回落, 進而推動消費增長, 因此歐洲天然氣消費下降不影響全球消費穩步增長大勢; 天然氣貿易流向進一步調整, 美國與亞太地區影響力日漸提升; LNG貿易靈活性不斷增加依然是長期趨勢. 對國家而言, 應抓住變革機遇努力提升在國際天然氣市場的影響力; 對公司而言, 需把握價格波動周期, 避免簽訂高價長協, 積極打造LNG全球資源池. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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