CHINA'S OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR.

Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine threatening global economic growth and the heterogeneous reactions of multinational corporations (MNCs) in the Russian market, the impact of the conflict on China's MNCs operating in Russia has yet to be studied systematically and holistically. Given the fact that foreign direct investment (FDI) data is a good proxy for measuring MNCs' real economic activities, studying China's FDI in Russia during the war can shed light on how China's MNCs in Russia reacted to the war at a macro level and contribute to the MNC-conflict linkages literature. This study aims to investigate the performance and determinants of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in Russia in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war and make forecasts. The qualitative archival study was conducted, and data were extracted from historically China's OFDI Annual Statistical Bulletin. The results show that China's OFDI to Russia showed an overall downward trend and unbalanced industrial distribution during the Russia-Ukraine war and is highly sensitive to geopolitical risk, natural resource endowment (the sole positively correlated determinant), investment environment, and global crisis. The forecasts for the near-future growth of China's OFDI to Russia tend to decline, while the share of China's OFDI in Russia's secondary sector will remain at the top. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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