Forecasting of production cost and other indices of activity of industrial enterprise

The forecasting of the cost of sales, the income of enterprises of the dairy and construction industries of Ukraine on the basis of statistical data of several enterprises is the object of research. It is necessary building economic-mathematical models for forecasting of the production cost and other economic indices of enterprise activity.The factors that have the greatest impact on the cost of sales are determined. It is obtained that the first, third and fourth factor signs could be included in the regression model for the researching enterprise of dairy industry.Correlation-regression analysis is used to analyze and forecast the indices of enterprise activity. Economic-mathematical models are constructed in the form of a linear multiple regression equation. These models describe the relationship between the production cost and the factors which affect on its result for the dairy industry, as well as between the net income of the enterprise of the construction industry of Ukraine and the cost of sales. Multiple correlation and determination coefficients (0.9566841 and 0.91524451) for the first and (0.972 and 0.945) for the second models are found. These coefficients show that the constructed models are adequate to experimental data and can be used for analysis and forecast of indices of enterprise activity.The values of -statistics and -criterion show the significance of the model of the cost of sales and the correlation coefficient. The economic-mathematical model is obtained, which allows estimate the dependence of the change of the cost of sales from the change of the expenses of the dairy industry enterprise of Ukraine with a sufficiently high accuracy (95 %).The obtained models can be used for analysis, forecasting and management of indices of enterprise activity in the system of effective using of enterprise resources, which will lead to rational using of production resources, increase profitability of enterprises.

Исследована взаимосвязь между себестоимостью реализованной продукции и операционными затратами, а также между чистым доходом и себестоимостью реализованной продукции нескольких промышленных предприятий. Разработаны экономико-математические модели в виде уравнения множественной регрессии на основе статистических данных нескольких промышленных предприятий Украины. Проверена адекватность моделей экспериментальным данным.

Досліджено взаємозв'язок між собівартістю реалізованої продукції і операційними витратами, а також між чистим доходом та собівартістю реалізованої продукції деяких промислових підприємств. Розроблено економіко-математичні моделі у вигляді рівняння множинної регресії на основі статистичних даних кількох промислових підприємств України. Перевірено адекватність моделей експериментальним даним.