Hybrid warfare and contemporary conflict

Hibridno ratovanje ne predstavlja nov i revolucionaran pristup u ostvarivanju političkih ciljeva. Navedeno je temeljna pretpostavka ove doktorske disertacije koja je potvrĎena kroz znanstveno istraţivanje i komparativnu analizu tri studije slučaja. Pokušaj stvaranja Velike Srbije, zbog činjenice da se relativno nedavno odvijao na teritoriju Republike Hrvatske, najrelevantniji je slučaj kada govorimo o aktualnim vanjskopolitičkim i obrambenim izazovima Republike Hrvatske. Izraelsko-libanonski rat iz 2006. godine smatra se oglednim primjerkom hibridnog rata izmeĎu drţavnog i nedrţavnog aktera. Rat Rusije i Ukrajine i aneksija Krima najrecentniji je primjer hibridnog rata izmeĎu dva drţavna aktera, i katalizator koji je aktualizirao pojam hibridnog rata, pokrenuo meĎunarodnu zajednicu i NATO savez da preispitaju svoj pristup suvremenom ratovanju. Ova disertacija temelji na se razmatranju ratova s vojnopolitičkog stajališta, a kombiniranjem tri teorijska okvira odabrano je 16 čimbenika koji karakteriziraju hibridnog aktera. Teorijskom analizom sve tri studije slučaja potvrĎeno je da hibridnom ratu prethodi period političkih, ideoloških ili sličnih neslaganja izmeĎu suprotstavljenih strana, tijekom kojeg hibridni akter nastoji širiti vlastiti narativ i otvoreno ili prikriveno provodi aktivnosti koje će mu dati prednost u ratu. Provedbom istraţivanja u tri rata testirana je prisutnost svakog pojedinog čimbenika hibridnog modela, a komparacijom rezultata utvrĎeno je da su odreĎeni čimbenici bili, u većoj ili manjoj mjeri, prisutni u sva tri rata. Unatoč činjenici da slučajevi pripadaju različitom geopolitičkom kontekstu, da su se odvijali u različitom vremenskom razdoblju i na različitoj zemljopisnoj lokaciji, prisutnost čimbenika u sva tri rata potvrĎuju pretpostavku da hibridni rat nije ništa novo.

Hybrid warfare does not represent a new and revolutionary approach to the realization of political goals. This is the central hypothesis of this doctoral dissertation which has been tested by scientific research and comparative analysis of three post Cold War, geographically and chronically dispersed case studies. The first case study encompasses the initial attempt to create a Greater Serbia at the territorial expense of the Republic of Croatia which occurred in the early 1990's within the context of Yugoslavia's dissolution. The second case study details the Israeli - Hezbollah war of 2006 which is considered by many to be a textbook example of a state versus non-state actor conflict. Finally, the third case study analyzes the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine (including the Russian annexation of Crimea) which has popularized the term "hybrid warfare" and acted as a catalyst in initiating NATO re-examination of its approach to contemporary security threats. This dissertation analyzes the manifestation of hybrid war from a military and political perspective, and to characterize hybrid actors, it makes use of sixteen individual factors derived from three established theoretical frameworks. Theoretical analysis of the three case studies suggests that in all three cases open warfare was preceded by a period of political, ideological or other conflict between the opposing parties. In all instances, the hybrid actor made use of this period to promulgate its narrative, while at the same time covertly or overtly undertaking activities designed to ensure an advantage upon the onset of violence. The presence of each individual factor of the combined theoretical framework was determined through research, and a comparison of the results proves that certain characteristics are present, in varying degree, in all three conflicts. Despite occurring in different geopolitical circumstances, in different chronological periods, and in different geographical locations, the presence of hybrid factors in all three conflicts confirms the initial hypothesis that hybrid warfare is not a new phenomenon.