Prediction of artiodactyles population dynamics in hunting sector of Ukraine

Проведено аналіз можливості прогнозування динаміки популяцій за допомогою універсальної моделі, отриманої теоретичним шляхом на основі положень системології. Запропоновано ряд методик визначення робочих параметрів моделей, а також проведено оцінювання якості прогнозування кількості парнокопитних з їх (моделей) застосуванням.

Проведен анализ возможности прогнозирования динамики популяций с помощью универсальной модели, полученной теоретическим путем на основе положений системологии. Предложен ряд методик определения рабочих параметров моделей, а также проведена оценка качества прогнозирования численности парнокопытных с их (моделей) использованием.

The fauna is one of the components of the environment, the national wealth of Ukraine, the source of spiritual and aesthetic enrichment and education of people, the object of research, as well as an important base for industrial and medicinal stuff, food products and other material values. Population dynamics of different species has the great importance for a person, as many animals and plants are the objects of his economic activity or reason of a loss. Therefore, knowledge of the laws of population dynamics is necessary to predict the possible undesirable events, and to make, if necessary, amendments to the dynamics in order to manage it. Typically, the prediction is a complex and difficult task that requires thorough analysis and complex processing of a specific primary material. The article analyzes the possibility of prediction of the population dynamics of artiodactyles in the hunting areas of Ukraine by means of the generalized logistic (universal) model, derived theoretically on the basis of systemology. A number of methods of identification of the universal mathematical model of population dynamics was suggested, and the quality of prediction of the number of artiodactyles with their use was estimated.