Rysk roulette: Med sikte på Ukraina

The purpose of the essay is to investigate the reasons for Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 by adopting a defensive and offensive realist perspective. Hypothetical explanations for the invasion such as balancing of threats are operationalized based on offensive defense policy, geographical proximity and military capability, while expansion of power is interpreted as challenging the status quo regardless of security threats. Based on these variables, the empirical material, consisting of news articles, books, academic articles, websites and policy statements, is read, interpreted and categorized in a so-called content analysis. The result of the analysis indicates that Russia may have invaded Ukraine to balance against NATO- and EU-enlargement, as well as against increased nationalism in Ukraine. It also suggests, in part, that Ukraine may have been invaded by Russia because of power ambitions. Against this background, the results support the hypothesized connection between balancing of threats and power expansion, on the one hand, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on the other.