Grain export from Ukraine: assessment of the potential during peace negotions in Brest-Litovsk

The purpose of the research is to define how much grain, according to the calculations of German and Ukrainian government experts, Ukraine could have exported in the first half of 1918. The scientific novelty of the research is seen in the fact that for the first time in historical science, actual material on the topic is systematized and analyzed, conclusions and generalizations are reasoned. Consideration of the topic leads to the following conclusions. Until 1914, Ukrainian provinces within the Russian Empire produced about 19 million tons of grain annually, of which 4.8 to 5 million tons were exported outside the empire. During the First World War (1914 – 1917), grain production in Ukraine decreased and there was less export. According to the estimates of the German side, Ukrainian stocks of export grain at the beginning of 1918 had from 2 to 8 million tons, and according to the data of the Ukrainian side, it was from 1 to 3.3 million tons. Based on these calculations, at the negotiations in Brest-Litovsk, Ukrainian, Austro-Hungarian and German delegates agreed that Ukraine was able to sell Germany and Austria-Hungary 1 million tons of grain by July 31, 1918. These obligations of the Ukrainian side were recorded in peace treaty of February 9, 1918 and in the protocol of February 7, 1918, which supplemented the peace treaty