Scenarios for the outcome of the Russian-Ukraine war: implications for European security and international relations

This article offers an analysis of the scenarios of outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war and their impact on European security. The basis of each scenario is a definition of the interests of both Russia and Ukraine in this war, a hypothetical description of the assumptions of their fulfilment (full success of one or the other country in the war or partial success) and, at the same time, the expected impact of the full or partial success of one or the other country, i.e., direct actors of the war, on the international order. The scenario analysis is based on an examination of the course of fighting in the period from the beginning of the Russian invasion on 24 February (until the end of November) to identify the degree of probability of the fulfilment of each scenario.