俄白聯盟之研究─以新古典現實主義的角度探討

於1991年底蘇聯解體後正式獨立的白俄羅斯共和國，其與俄羅斯之間特殊的地緣政治因素、經濟上的依存關係、相近的種族文化與歷史傳統，促使兩國建立相較於獨立國家國協（Содружество Независимых Государств, СНГ/ Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS）更為緊密的政治、經濟、軍事、外交組織，亦即使兩國走向整合的白俄羅斯─俄羅斯聯盟（Союз Беларуси и России/ Union State of Russia and Belarus）。自1996年4月始，時任白俄羅斯總統的盧卡申科（Лукашенко, Александр Григорьевич, Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko）與前俄羅斯總統葉爾欽（Ельцин, Борис Николаевич, Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin），就俄白聯盟簽署一系列協議，諸如《俄白共同體組織條約》（Договор об образовании Сообщества Беларуси и России）、《俄白聯盟條約》（Договор о Союзе Беларуси и России）、《關於進一步整合宣言》（Декларация о дальнейшем единении России и Беларуси）、《兩國公民權利平等條約》（Договор между Российской Федерацией и Республикой Беларусь о равных правах граждан）、《建立國家聯盟經濟共同體協議》（Соглашение о создании равных условий субъектам хозяйствования государств-союзников）和《建立聯盟國家條約》（Договор о создании Союзного государства）等，朝俄白整合目標邁進的條約。 然俄白聯盟自成立之初至今，負面批評不斷，且除了在軍事同盟上兩國具有較為成功的碩果外，其他領域均無突破性的進展。此外，俄白雙方兩次的油氣之爭與白俄羅斯兩次經濟危機俄羅斯態度不明的事件，使俄白整合蒙上陰影。另一方面，歐盟與北約的東擴，明顯以白俄羅斯、烏克蘭與喬治亞等前蘇聯衛星國為主要拉攏目標，在此國際因素影響下，如何解釋俄白雙方政府仍決定繼續俄白聯盟，是為此論文關注的焦點，並試圖以新古典現實主義的角度，由個案研究的途徑，分析解釋並預測俄白聯盟的發展。

After the Soviet Union disintegrated, post-communist countries in East-Central Europe were either divided (the USSR, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia) or were reunited (the German Democratic Republic with Federal Republic of Germany). Meanwhile, these countries developed different patterns of association. Some of the newly independent states joined the European Union and NATO, while others formed the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) at the collapse of the USSR. Six of the former Soviet member states established the Collective Security Organization. Five of them established the Eurasian Economic Community. Four of them—Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine—formed the Single Economic Space. Among these nations, Belarus and Russia have built the closet relationship, first with a “Community” and then a “Union” in 1997. Belarus sits between Europe and Russia, but history shows its ambiguous leaning towards the latter. The country had been incorporated in the Russian Empire for two hundred years, and later also in the USSR. Belarus was also the Slavic republic that supported the USSR the most its the referendum on a “renewed union” held in March 1991. Furthermore, the referendum in November 1996 reconfirms the Russia-leaned stand of Belarus, which differs from other former Soviet member states in Middle-East Europe. Despite conflicts between the two countries and the political advancement from the West, Belarus and Russia still tend to compose Belarus-Russia Union on international platforms. This research focuses upon several analytic factors from the viewpoint of Neoclassical Realism, including ethnology, culture, geopolitics, economy, security, political interests, international environment, and leadership factors to examine the relationship between Belarus and Russia.