從烏克蘭危機探討東歐區域安全

2013年11月，時任烏克蘭總統的亞努科維奇，在拒絕簽署歐盟聯繫國協定後，引發一連串國內及國外的危機，導致了領導人被罷黜、國家領土被俄羅斯佔領、外國勢力的影響浮上檯面等後果，造就了冷戰過後最大的東歐戰略板塊變化。 烏克蘭位居東歐亞交匯之處，對區域安全影響頗鉅。為研究烏克蘭危機的影響與未來可能的局勢變化，本文首先簡述事件過程，並以時間軸鋪陳，分析其歷史及地緣關係如何造成烏克蘭人民國家認同差異與影響領導人的外交政策；在地緣政治方面，以美國、歐盟及俄羅斯等三大重要外國勢力為主要面向，研究如何在政治、經濟及軍事方面干擾烏克蘭的走向。進而探討烏克蘭當局之戰略文化形成之肇因、外國勢力角力對其國內政治的衝擊與其未來對外關係的可能的戰略選項。

In November 2013, when the President of Ukraine, Yanukovych, refused to sign the EU-Ukraine association Agreement, triggered a series of domestic and foreign crises, such as: the president was removed from his power, and the territories was occupied by the Russian, as well as the foreign influence had become an important issue and no longer been ignored and so on. This has been the biggest changes on strategic situation in Eastern European since the Cold War ended. Ukraine is located in the intersection of Eastern Europe and Asia; the impact of regional security is huge. In order to study the influence of the crisis in Ukraine and the possible changes of the situation in the future, at fist this paper summarizes the event process, then according to timeline, analyzing how the historical and geopolitical issues will influence the people in the Ukrainian as well as the leaders’ foreign policies. From the geopolitical perspective, the United States, European Union and Russia are the major foreign forces as the main target, this paper will focus on how the political, economic and military issues interference the direction of the Ukraine's developments. And then exploring the possible strategic options for the formation of the strategic culture of the Ukrainian authority, the impact of foreign forces on its domestic politics and the future strategic choice on the external relations. Keywords: Ukrainian crisis, strategic culture, regional security.