'Faktorer för framgångsrik medling i postsovjetiska konflikter' : - En utvärdering, analys, och jämförelse av Georgienkriget och Ukrainakriget utifrån ripeness theory

The negative effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has been felt on a global scale.This makes it more relevant than it has been in a long time to understand how to achievesuccessful mediation and negotiation between Russia and post-soviet states. By examining theRusso-Georgian War of 2008 and the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2022, and thencomparing the two cases. This paper aims to investigate what factors contribute to successfulmediation in these two cases, and to hypothesise what obstacles exist for achieving successfulmediation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. The method used for this purpose isprocess-tracing, and the theoretical framework that has been used is Zartmans ripeness theoryand its formula for the concepts of mutually enticing opportunity, mutually hurting stalemate,ripe moment, and way out. The results of this study shows that a ripe moment existed in theconflict between Russia and Georgia despite the weak grounds for the existence of a mutuallyhurting stalemate. The study also concluded that the ceasefire agreement between the twocountries included a strong presence of one of the subcategories of the mutually enticingopportunity concept. Furthermore, the study also showed that a mutually hurting stalemate doesnot exist in the war between Russia and Ukraine, but simultaneously indicated strong grounds fora mutually hurting stalemate developing in the near future. Finally, the study identified fourdifferent obstacles for successful mediation between Russia and Ukraine. These related to theexistence of a mutually hurting stalemate, the motivations of the two conflict parties, and thechallenge of developing a mutually enticing opportunity.